I was told my my exhusband, a Middle Eastern intelligence expert, in leading think tanks, that there is enough oil to last THOUSANDS of years.
So when I encountered Royal Dutch Shell's advancement of the Peak Oil scenario, I was left somewhat aghast. Afterall, my ex-husband wrote papers on oil STOLEN by members of the Kuwaiti royal family to get PhDs in the United Kingdom. He knew what he was talking about, based on years and years of research and good sources of information.
Now that said, that oil (and natural gas) is stored in the earth but must be refined. And now you have the kicker. We rely on companies and national governments to get this out of the earth, and they have their very own CONtrol agendas. The higher the prices for oil and gas that they can get and the lower they can keep down their capital and running cost$, the more profit$ they make. And you can bet they DO. By keeping the cost per barrel of crude high, they can thus make the cost of upgrading equipment and refineries (and delivery, too) more in line with bigger profit$ as well. Building refineries, new oil platforms, paying people to go and scout for the stuff as well as to keep those greed$o happy at the top of these companie$ is an expen$ive bu$ine$$.
So for years we have seen very little refinery upgrading or building new ones very evident.
And we won't be seeing it anytime soon.
But they need to keep expanding the energy supply. And they want CONtrol and this has been a right headache for the transnational energy companies for quite a while.
While you and I have been thinking outside the "box" and come up with support for alternative fuels for well on fifty years, the bean counters and profit taker$ at the oil companie$ have been obsessed with their own concerns. They don't even seem to consider the effects all this will have on their children (who the guys at the top ship off to boarding schools anyway).
Solar, wind, water, and other technologies are not on their agenda and another time-consuming activity they've been involved with is creating propaganda against them. Even biofuels, which are enormously fossil fuel dependent aren't supported by the oil cartel's powers that be here in the belly of the Western beast. Maybe those western status cars (fetishism) has made them lamebrained ???
So we are seeing the first signs of coal and uranium being mined on a flat out basis just recently as they make this MAD SCRAMBLE to bail out the mess that they have made in their sloth.
And here is a nice little essay someone posted to me about the way they are thinking, which pretty much sums up in a not too complicated way what they are thinking.. It will furnish you with some Real Good Arguments to shove at people who think going nuclear is a Great Idea (are you listening, Mr. McGuinty, Sir and other Canadian officials living in lalaland??
I do hope that those in control of the public purse realize soon that using poisons to energize the planet is not a very good idea. Even the energy companies can see THAT, although they'll take dough off anyone to keep their profit$ up.
For those that don't know, HVAC stands for heating, ventilation and air conditioning in architecture and construction parlance.
So when I encountered Royal Dutch Shell's advancement of the Peak Oil scenario, I was left somewhat aghast. Afterall, my ex-husband wrote papers on oil STOLEN by members of the Kuwaiti royal family to get PhDs in the United Kingdom. He knew what he was talking about, based on years and years of research and good sources of information.
Now that said, that oil (and natural gas) is stored in the earth but must be refined. And now you have the kicker. We rely on companies and national governments to get this out of the earth, and they have their very own CONtrol agendas. The higher the prices for oil and gas that they can get and the lower they can keep down their capital and running cost$, the more profit$ they make. And you can bet they DO. By keeping the cost per barrel of crude high, they can thus make the cost of upgrading equipment and refineries (and delivery, too) more in line with bigger profit$ as well. Building refineries, new oil platforms, paying people to go and scout for the stuff as well as to keep those greed$o happy at the top of these companie$ is an expen$ive bu$ine$$.
So for years we have seen very little refinery upgrading or building new ones very evident.
And we won't be seeing it anytime soon.
But they need to keep expanding the energy supply. And they want CONtrol and this has been a right headache for the transnational energy companies for quite a while.
While you and I have been thinking outside the "box" and come up with support for alternative fuels for well on fifty years, the bean counters and profit taker$ at the oil companie$ have been obsessed with their own concerns. They don't even seem to consider the effects all this will have on their children (who the guys at the top ship off to boarding schools anyway).
Solar, wind, water, and other technologies are not on their agenda and another time-consuming activity they've been involved with is creating propaganda against them. Even biofuels, which are enormously fossil fuel dependent aren't supported by the oil cartel's powers that be here in the belly of the Western beast. Maybe those western status cars (fetishism) has made them lamebrained ???
So we are seeing the first signs of coal and uranium being mined on a flat out basis just recently as they make this MAD SCRAMBLE to bail out the mess that they have made in their sloth.
And here is a nice little essay someone posted to me about the way they are thinking, which pretty much sums up in a not too complicated way what they are thinking.. It will furnish you with some Real Good Arguments to shove at people who think going nuclear is a Great Idea (are you listening, Mr. McGuinty, Sir and other Canadian officials living in lalaland??
I do hope that those in control of the public purse realize soon that using poisons to energize the planet is not a very good idea. Even the energy companies can see THAT, although they'll take dough off anyone to keep their profit$ up.
For those that don't know, HVAC stands for heating, ventilation and air conditioning in architecture and construction parlance.
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Archives2007/LATOCForumDes .htmlperate [In accord with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this article is distributed without profit to those who have an interest in receiving such material for educational purposes. Any other use requires contacting the author.]Insight from an Oil Company InsiderOriginally posted to the LATOC ForumSo I got a chance to have a long sit down with my dad. He gave me some interesting inside perspectives on the situation.He is the GM of one of Pennsylvania Power and Light's Oil and Natural gas pipelines. So he is privy to most of the business decisions that are going on. Basically behind closed doors, they are talking supply/demand fundamentals, and the rise of India/China. He never used the words peak oil, but it was like a broken record the stuff they have been talking about.
He described to me how in the early 90's, PP&L bought out a whole bunch of HVAC companies. The solution back then was natural gas. They were going to put a natural gas generator in every persons house and use the hvac companies to service it. The govt at the time was pushing all of the oil companies to install natural gas rig's in there stations. Here is the problem. That happened across the country, and in a matter of 3 years, demand went so high for the natural gas, it was now more expensive than oil. The entire project was scrapped.He explained to me how they are going to build their first nuclear power plant, and that 10 years ago if the CEO had mentioned nuclear, they would have forced him to take a drug test. They are also planning on building 5 coal powered plants. Something they haven't done in 30 years.
Here is the catch, for everyone thinking nuclear will save our ass. He said it normally takes about 10 years to get a nuclear plant built. About 3 to go through all the red tape, and 7 to build one.So I asked him, if the SHTF and they removed all the red tape, we would be looking about 7 years? He said, no... If the SHTF and the red tape is removed, we would be looking at around 15-20 years per plant. Apparently there are only a couple of companies in the US that can build these things. So you would have every utility across America competing for these two companies. You can't just expand operations like making cars, it takes years and years to train the engineers and the construction companies to build a nuke plant.
He also said something else that scared the frig out of me. He said that as prices go up more and more for oil, you will see a mass flux of companies moving over to coal. The only problem, is we have so far scaled back our coal production and rail transportation, the only way to get the coal to its destination is by truck. So the price of coal is affected by oil as well. But even further, it wont be a slight trickle for companies wanting coal plants, it will be a mass flux of companies, driving the price of coal through the roof with everyone competing over the coal. He said his company thinks the same thing will happen to coal prices that happened to natural gas prices.So I asked him why they are even bothering building the coal plants. And he said,"THEY ARE DESPERATE".
He also discussed with me the means by which power plants are brought on or off line depending on the load.
He said the most efficient power plants always run, and then when demand gets high, they bring on line the less efficient plants, the last being the oil-fired plants. So as oil prices continue to go up, they expect demand to fall off a bit. Which will allow them to take the less efficient plants off line, and keep prices stable until a point. Once the prices get so high that the efficient plants no longer provide a cost buffer, that's when all hell will break loose. He described it like an avalanche of higher prices all of the sudden.
Something even more disturbing he was talking about is the deregulation. He was saying that PP&L has two sides to it, PP&L and PP&L utilities.
The utilities side is the one that brings the electricity to peoples' homes. The other side is the power generation side. Basically what happened was the power generation side had the utilities side sign a contract stating they had to provide electricity at a certain cost. Right now the utilities side is losing money. The contract expires at the start of next year. He was saying prices will go up for people 20-30 percent next year, and then another 40 percent the year after. And those prices had nothing to do with oil going from 50-90 a barrel. He said the current prices will make them go even higher.He said this is indicative of the rest of the deregulated companies in America.
So after our four-hour talk, we both came to the conclusion that it will be a hard crash.
What we will likely see is a longer peak than a lot of us had thought. The peak should last another 1-3 years, oil prices will climb drastically, but home heating will not follow suit at least for a year or two.
Gas prices will climb, and force the economy into a deep recession.
Once all of the demand has been killed and the less efficient plants are taken off line, and oil prices rise to where the efficient plants no longer offer any benefit, that's when all hell will break loose.
We think 1-3 years, then a hard fast crash.
Better get your preps done quickly.This is if there are no geopolitical events. If we attack Iran, he said he expects oil prices to double on the attack and cause a nice fast crash NOW.--Edmund Fitzgerald
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