18 March 2011

LIES, MORE LIES and more fucking LIES, so some FACTS



MWM: So far the media-ocracy and politic-ocracy is feeding a lot of crappy information which uses ignorant boogle-heads like Obamma and newscasters to pooh pooh the concerns about the radiation leaks, while Tokyo Electric Inscrutible Stiff Upper Lip avoids telling us anything about how desparate they are with the total devastation into which their nuclear reactor plant has fallen. They continue to talk about how pumps and electricity will get the situation under control but anybody who looks at the pix in detail can readily see that some of the reactors are a tangled mangled colllapsed mess which isn't going to hold much water, not even for Jesus, meanwhile thousands of fuel rods are burning into melted pools somewhere deep and only the debbil knows if and when they can merge to some kind of queer criticality for exploding vociferously. JAPAN IS TOTALLY FUBARED. HERE IN THIS PACKET IS SOME IMPORTANT REAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE DANGER OF EVEN DILUTED DUST PLUMES. Remember, if you can, we have had desert storms from Mongolia get picked up into the Jet Stream and delivered over Arizona to render magnificant red sunsets as the dust diffracted the the rays of the Sun. Anybody who tells you there is only a minimal threat from Japan simply is ignorantly blowing farts out of his face. The truth is we don't know but this is so big and the stakes are so immense - your health and life - you really shouldn't play Russian Roulette here.

From: Naia One Heart
Subject: Fwd: Plume hits West Coast Friday - Risk Assessment
Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2011 02:04:46 -0700

Here's another. Lots of info on radiation, and as you see, plume hits west coast now, though it looks the really nasty stuff will take a bit longer.

Begin forwarded message:

Date: March 17, 2011 11:44:53 PM MST
Subject: Plume hits West Coast Friday - Risk Assessment

PLUME FORECAST:

The United Nations Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization provided a projection of the plume's path to member states, but on Wednesday it refused to release it news organizations. Fortunately, the New York Times obtained a copy from another source and published it the same day. It shows the first fallout reaching the West Coast early Friday morning:

[]

[]

See an animation of the forecast here:
<http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/16/science/plume-graphic.html?ref=science>http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/16/science/plume-graphic.html?ref=science

More info here:
<http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/science/17plume.html>http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/science/17plume.html

Here's a comment on the issue from the CTBT:
<http://newsroom.ctbto.org/>http://newsroom.ctbto.org/

TRACK THE PLUME (almost) LIVE:
<http://www.zamg.ac.at/pict/aktuell/20110315_fuku_Cs-137-glob_12.gif>http://www.zamg.ac.at/pict/aktuell/20110315_fuku_Cs-137-glob_12.gif

Article on CA monitoring:
<http://www.ktla.com/news/landing/ktla-local-radiation-monitors,0,2685193.story>http://www.ktla.com/news/landing/ktla-local-radiation-monitors,0,2685193.story

RISK ASSESSMENT:

Watch out - you are being misled! All of the reporting on the risk to public health that I've seen is focused on radiation levels, and how low they are, and how the radiation levels are way too low to pose a danger to public health. THIS IS IRRELEVANT! Direct levels of radiation are going to be extremely low, as they are from all fallout, regardless of source, when measured many miles from the source. This is due to the effects of dilution caused by the dispersion of the cloud. BUT THAT IS NOT THE POINT!!! The danger to public health from fallout is not direct radiation, it's from the absorption into the body of radioactive particles - the radioactive dust itself. The media is choosing to focus on something that is not a concern - levels of direct radiation, and neglecting to mention that all people in the path of the fallout will be inhaling and otherwise absorbing microscopic radioactive dust particles, that will lodge in the body. Some of those particles, especially plutonium, cesium, iodine and strontium, WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE HEALTH EFFECTS. In years to come, THEY WILL CAUSE CANCER IN A LOT OF PEOPLE.

Sure, you won't feel a thing and you won't keel over dead when the plume blows overhead, but you will be inhaling particles that will significantly increase your risk of cancer. And later you will be eating contaminated food and drinking contaminated drinks that will significantly increase your dose.

Consider the difference between sitting in front of a fire, and feeling the heat on your face: that's direct radiation. Then imagine you're downwind of the fire, and you inhale the smoke. That's fallout. Now most smoke particles from a fire will be cool by the time you inhale them, but in the case of radioactive dust clouds, some of those particles will remain radioactive for months, years, or for your entire lifetime (and way beyond, in the case of plutonium).

A rule of thumb is, if the authorities report a "minor" "insignificant" rise in radiation levels in your area (as they have already in Alaska), you know you are breathing in dangerous radioactive dust particles.

Here is an excellent and very thorough report on the effects of Chernobyl:
<http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub1239_web.pdf>http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub1239_web.pdf

And some more info:
<http://www.ratical.com/radiation/Chernobyl/Chernobyl@10p2.html>http://www.ratical.com/radiation/Chernobyl/Chernobyl@10p2.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_compared_to_other_radioactivity_releases
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster_effects>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster_effects

Of high concern, especially to children, is <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iodine-131>iodine-131. It is a major component of uranium fission, and it has been detected in the plumes from Fukushima. It remains dangerous for about 80 days - enough for the fallout to carry it to all parts of the northern hemisphere. It can be inhaled, or consumed for example in milk products from cows whose feed is contaminated by fallout. Once absorbed by the body, it will migrate to the thyroid gland where it will eventually cause cancer in many cases. As mentioned in my first email, thyroid cancer rates in children living in Connecticut doubled a few years after Chernobyl. Japan is about half the distance by Westerly winds to Connecticut than the Ukraine is, plus there will eventually be probably between 10 and 200 times more radioactive emissions from Fukushima than from Chernobyl.

There is a way to protect the thyroid from radioactive iodine by saturating the gland with NON radioactive iodine before the plume hits your area. The two most effective substances to do this are Potassium Iodide and Potassium Iodate. They do the same thing, but the required dosage is different (adult dose 170 mg/day of iodate vs 130 mg/day for the iodide). Iodate is a little less toxic.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potassium_iodide>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potassium_iodide
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potassium_iodate

Those dosages are full blocking doses: something that will saturate your thyroid with iodine, preventing it from absorbing any more, which would be good if you are exposed to I-131. However, you can't take that much iodine per day for very long before you will suffer significant negative health effects from the iodine itself. Perhaps it would be better to take half or lesser doses - but will that provide any protection? I wish I knew but I don't.

Be aware that the blocking doses given for potasssium iodide and iodate deliver (I THINK) 100 mg of elemental iodine per day. THAT IS A LOT OF FREAKING IODINE!! The US RDA for iodine is 150 mcg (millionths of a gram). Some people take up to 20 times that, or 3 mg per day, with no ill effects. But doses of as little as 4.5 mg/day or more will produce negative side effects in most people if taken on an ongoing basis. These include: mouth sores, metallic taste, swollen salivary glands, diarrhea, vomiting, headache, rash, hypothyroidism and breathing difficulties.

Note that while there are serious side effects to saturating your thyroid with iodine, they may be less bad for you than absorbing iodine-131. Nonetheless you should inform yourself. It is not safe to take a full blocking dose for more than a few days, and unfortunately we probably will be exposed to low levels of fallout for many weeks to come:
<http://preparedness.com/potioddosgui.html>http://preparedness.com/potioddosgui.html
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/radiation/ki.asp
<http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/EmergencyPreparedness/BioterrorismandDrugPreparedness/ucm072265.htm>http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/EmergencyPreparedness/BioterrorismandDrugPreparedness/ucm072265.htm
http://www.campingsurvival.com/nucprot.html
<http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42135438/ns/health-health_care/>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42135438/ns/health-health_care/ (Good to read for it's cautionary info but I don't agree that there is no need to take thyroid blockers. I do very much agree that taking too soon or too much or for too long may be counterproductive or even dangerous. Use your own judgement.)

One side effect of taking a lot of iodine is that the thyroid will produce less thyroid hormone ("hypothyroidism"), and so if you are taking a "thyroid blocking" dose of iodine (or even a lesser dose) for more than a few days, you should have your thyroid hormone levels checked. Since I have hypothyroidism and have to take thyroid medication, I can tell you that the cheapest way to get a level check is to order the test yourself online. I recommend this one:
<http://www.healthcheckusa.com/lab_tests/Thyroid_Screenings/STTM_Basic_Thyroid_Function>http://www.healthcheckusa.com/lab_tests/Thyroid_Screenings/STTM_Basic_Thyroid_Function

Before you order the test, check that there's a lab near you where you can get the blood drawn:
<http://www.healthcheckusa.com/locations.asp>http://www.healthcheckusa.com/locations.asp
healthcheckusa uses LabCorp, which has blood draw locations all over the place. So if the above link doesn't reveal a nearby lab, check the LabCorp site: <http://www.healthcheckusa.com/locations.asp>http://www.healthcheckusa.com/locations.asp Then call healthcheckusa to confirm that that lab location will okay. You'll get the results by email usually the next day. Contact your doctor for help in interpreting the results, or you can contact me if you wish.

If you can't get hold of either potassium iodide or iodate, any nontoxic form of iodine supplement may help, but the problem is getting the right dose. Most supplements have too little to help (you have to saturate the gland before being exposed to I-131 in order to be protected).

Thyroid Cancer Effects in Children:
<http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/features/chernobyl-15/thyroid.shtml>http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/features/chernobyl-15/thyroid.shtml

Another isotope of great concern is <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cesium_137>cesium-137, also detected in the Fukushima plumes. The body can't distinguish cesium from potassium, so it's taken up by our cells and becomes an internal source of radiation. Cesium-137 is a gamma emitter and its half-life of 30 years means that it stays in the soil, to concentrate in the food chain, for over 300 years. While iodine-131 remains radioactive for six weeks, cesium-137 stays in the body for decades, concentrating in muscle where it irradiates muscle cells and nearby organs.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strontium-90>Strontium-90 is also long-lived and, because it resembles calcium, is permanently incorporated into bone tissue where it can cause leukemia.

Plutonium will lodge in the lungs where it will remain radioactive for several tens of thousands of years. It will cause lung cancer in many people.

<http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/health/articles/2011/03/15/fears_of_health_risks_rise_amid_japan_crisis/?page=full>http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/health/articles/2011/03/15/fears_of_health_risks_rise_amid_japan_crisis/?page=full

Fears about health risks rose dramatically in Japan Tuesday with news of a greater radiation release and renewed warnings to remaining residents within 20 miles to stay indoors.

By Marilynn Marchione
AP Medical Writer / March 15, 2011

Japanese officials said that more radiation was released at a nuclear plant disastrously damaged by last week's tsunami. Prime Minister Naoto Kan said radiation had spread from four reactors.

"The level seems very high, and there is still a very high risk of more radiation coming out," he said.

Thyroid cancer is the most immediate risk, and the Japanese government made plans to distribute potassium iodide pills to prevent it. Worse case scenarios -- lots of radioactive fallout -- can lead to other cancers years later.

Even a meltdown would not necessarily mean medical doom, experts said. It depends on the amount and type of radioactive materials.

Donald Olander, professor emeritus of nuclear engineering at the University of California at Berkeley, said even the much higher levels of radiation are "not a health hazard."

The world has seen two big nuclear reactor scares -- in 1986 at the Chernobyl plant in the Ukraine, and in 1979 at the Three Mile Island plant in Pennsylvania.

At Three Mile Island, even though a quarter of the reactor core melted, the steel containment structure held. The radiation released was so minuscule that it did not threaten health - the equivalent of a chest X-ray to local folks.

At Chernobyl, where there was no containment vessel, far more radioactive material was released, and of a more dangerous type than at Three Mile Island. It stayed in soil and got into plants in the Ukraine, contaminating milk and meat for decades. Thousands of children developed thyroid cancer from radiation exposure, and scientists are still working to document other possible health problems.

The lessons have not been lost on the Japanese as they grapple with the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant, whose cooling systems failed after a power outage from the massive earthquake last week.

They have evacuated 180,000 people from areas near the troubled reactors, where relatively minimal fallout was mostly confined at first. They've told people still in the area to wear masks, which can keep radioactive particles from being inhaled.

Most importantly, they have stockpiled and are making plans to give out potassium iodide -- pills that can keep radioactive iodine from being taken up by the thyroid gland and causing cancer.

"Those are all preventable cancers" if the protective pills are taken right after exposure, said University of New Mexico radiologist Dr. Fred Mettler. He led an international group that studied health effects of the Chernobyl disaster and is a U.S. representative to the United Nations on radiation safety.

At Chernobyl "they had millions of square kilometers to cover and it was all rural areas and they didn't really have anything stockpiled," he said.

The Russian reactor also lacked a containment vessel like those in Japan and the United States to prevent or minimize release of the more dangerous types of radioactive materials, Mettler said.

"Right now it's worse than Three Mile Island," Olander said, but isn't near the Chernobyl situation. Some radioactive iodine was released before the latest crisis Tuesday. Iodine is relatively short-lived, and potassium iodide pills can be used to block its uptake.

Of greater concern is the release of cesium, which officials had said was released in small amounts earlier. Cesium is absorbed throughout the body -- not just by the thyroid -- and stays in organs, tissue and the environment much longer, Mettler explained.

Cesium particles are relatively large and heavy, so they would not likely travel far in a plume. Much of it would drop near the reactor site, and officials hope, may be carried by winds east over the Pacific Ocean where it would fall harmlessly, Mettler said.

Any release of cesium is a concern environmentally and for health, said Jacqueline Williams, a radiation biologist and safety expert at the University of Rochester Medical Center in upstate New York.

"Prior to Chernobyl, we believed that the cesium would be diluted out, that once the cloud went through and it rained, the cesium would be washed out. What we found out was there was an accumulation of cesium in certain types of vegetation, and it accumulated rather than diluted," she said.

Animals fed on the vegetation and became contaminated, and meat and milk were affected.

"You can't be quite so blase about the fallout," Williams said.

At Three Mile Island, however, "the public health risk was close to zero because the radiation was contained within the site itself," Williams said.

Mettler agreed. The research he led in Russia documented 6,000 to 7,000 additional cases of thyroid cancer in people who were children and teens when Chernobyl occurred, "and there are questionable increases of leukemia in the cleanup workers but it's not certain."

And were there long-lasting problems from Three Mile Island?

"Not that most of the scientific community believes," Mettler said.

------

Online:

EPA: <http://1.usa.gov/gt46aP>http://1.usa.gov/gt46aP

NRC: <http://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/radiation/rad-health-effects.html>http://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/radiation/rad-health-effects.html

Three Mile Island: <http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/3mile-isle.html>http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/3mile-isle.html

http://www.eoearth.org/article/Health_effects_of_the_Chernobyl_accident

Health effects of the Chernobyl accident

Published: July 24, 2008, 9:04 pm
Edited: July 24, 2008, 9:04 pm
Lead Author:
Content Source: <http://www.eoearth.org/contributor/Biomed.central>Biomed.central
This article has been reviewed by the following Topic Editor: <http://www.eoearth.org/profile/Emily.monosson>Emily Monosson

Introduction

April 26, 2006, was the 20th anniversary of the <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Chernobyl,_Ukraine>Chernobyl accident, the second major single exposure to radiation of a substantial population. The accident produced a significant <http://www.eoearth.org/article/International_response_to_the_Chernobyl_accident>international response whose effectiveness is the subject of debate. It is relevant to the current view of the consequences of Chernobyl to reflect on the understanding in 1965 of the health consequences of the first major event, radiation from the atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, in 1945. The only significant consequences observed in survivors 20 years after the atomic bombs were increases in leukemia and thyroid cancer, and the general view of the future was reassuring. In 1974, a significant increase in solid cancers was detected, and nearly 50 years after the event, an unexpected increase was found in non-cancer diseases. Today, leukemia and thyroid cancer form only a small fraction of the accepted total radiation-related health detriment.

In 1990, four years after the Chernobyl accident, an increase in thyroid cancer was found in children exposed to fallout from the accident. Two years later, the first reports in the Western literature of an increase in childhood thyroid cancer (CTC) in Belarus were published. In 2000, about 2,000 cases of thyroid cancer had been reported in those exposed as children in the former Soviet Socialist Union, and in 2005, the number was estimated at 4,000; the latest estimate for the year 2056 ranges from 3,400 to 72,000. The effects are not limited by national borders; Poland has recorded cases in spite of a rapid precautionary distribution of stable <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Iodine>iodine. The causative agent,131I, was detected in many European countries with as yet unknown effects. Interestingly, a significant increase in leukemia has not been reliably reported in the three most affected countries.

This dramatic contrast between the two incidents is in part due to the different types of radiation exposure, but both show that the effects of massive exposures to radiation are immensely complex. In comparing the health effects after <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Chernobyl,_Ukraine>Chernobyl with those after the atomic bombs, it must be remembered that apart from workers in or close to the <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nuclear_power_reactor>power plant, the Chernobyl accident involved mainly exposure to radioactive isotopes, and the atomic bombs primarily involved direct exposure to gamma rays and neutrons. Because of the prominence given to thyroid carcinoma after Chernobyl, less attention has been given to whole-body exposure from the ingestion and inhalation of all isotopes, together with the shine from the radioactive cloud and deposited radioactivity. Consideration of the health effects of Chernobyl must take into account both tissue-specific doses due to <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Isotope>isotope concentration and whole-body <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Dose>doses.

The most prominent tissue-specific dose is that to the thyroid, largely from 131I, with a smaller contribution from short-lived isotopes of <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Iodine>iodine. For many in the 30-km zone (135,000), there were relatively high <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Absorption_of_toxicants>absorbed doses to other <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Organ_systems_and_organs>organs as well as the thyroid until evacuation, and for those living in the contaminated areas around the 30-km zone (5 million), relatively high dose rate exposure (days to weeks) was followed by prolonged (years) exposure to a low dose rate. This exposure was a complex mixture of external radiation and internal emitters. For others living farther from the accident, in Western Europe, for example, their average exposure was equivalent to an additional ≤ 50% of average annual natural background level of radiation. About 600,000 liquidators assisted with the cleanup. Those working at the site shortly after the accident (200,000) received substantial doses. For all of these groups, estimates of numbers of fatal cancers can be derived from the collective doses. However, such estimates depend on the assumed risk coefficient, but of the order of 60,000 such fatalities in total can be estimated, based on the collective dose estimated by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), less than half of which would derive from the declared contaminated areas. A more recent estimate of the numbers of fatal cancers based on a collective dose of less than half the UNSCEAR estimate gives a central value of 16,000 (95% confidence interval, 7,000–38,000).

Firmly established health consequences

Thyroid carcinoma

By far, the most prominent health consequence of the accident is the increase in thyroid cancer among those exposed as children. The medical authorities in Belarus and Ukraine were aware in 1990 that the incidence of the rare (typically about 1/106children/year) CTC was increasing, particularly in children living close to the <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nuclear_power_reactor>reactor. Initially, various non-<http://www.eoearth.org/article/Chernobyl,_Ukraine>Chernobyl-related causes were suggested for the increase in thyroid carcinoma. In terms of radiation dose, the most likely culprit was 131I, a copious product of nuclear fission with an 8.1-day half-life. 131I is rapidly taken up by the thyroid but was widely regarded as carrying little risk of thyroid neoplasia. Swedish <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Epidemiology>epidemiologic studies of the widespread use of 131I in diagnosis and treatment of thyroid disease found no significant risk of thyroid cancer. Other <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Isotope>isotopes of <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Iodine>iodine and <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Tellurium>tellurium-132 were also released in very large amounts, but because of their much shorter half-lives, their most significant contribution to the thyroid <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Dose>dose occurred only in those living near the reactor.

The first reports of the increase in Belarus were received with skepticism by the scientific community, but the risks were shown to be real. Analysis of thyroid carcinogenesis after X-ray exposure also showed clearly that the younger the subject at exposure, the higher the risk. The almost complete lack of children in the Swedish studies thus accounted for the apparent lack of a carcinogenic risk from 131I. It has since become increasingly clear that 131I is as carcinogenic in children as X rays. The child’s thyroid is one of the most sensitive human tissues to cancer induction by radiation. Because iodine is a volatile element, its release from fractured fuel rods is inevitable.

Much has been made of the fact that differentiated thyroid cancer is an eminently curable disease. Only a very small number of deaths from <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Chernobyl,_Ukraine>Chernobyl-related thyroid carcinoma have occurred so far. However, the preferred treatment regime, total thyroidectomy followed by 131I treatment to destroy metastases, is not always fully effective. Death from papillary carcinoma of the thyroid is rare, usually of the order of 5–10%. Because of the slow growth of the tumor, it is premature to assume that the even lower death rate for current Chernobyl-related cases will be maintained, particularly for cases yet to occur. An older age at onset can be associated with a less favorable prognosis. Currently, those exposed as small children are now adolescents or young adults but continue to carry an increased risk of developing thyroid carcinoma. The incidence of thyroid cancer in those who were adults at the time of exposure is reported to have increased in the many exposed populations, although the relationship to radiation is not clear. Screening has become more sophisticated, and increased ascertainment may be a major factor. The concentration of effort on the major increase in those exposed as children has meant that the possible much smaller risk to adults has not been adequately investigated.

Acute radiation sickness

A small group of liquidators and plant workers received very high whole-body <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Dose>doses. Among these, about 150 individuals were treated for acute radiation sickness; 28 of these died within a relatively short time. Approximately 20 more have since died from probable radiation-related diseases.

Psychological consequences

Psychological effects are of considerable importance. They arise from an understandable fear of exposure to an unknown amount of an intangible but potentially dangerous agent, fear for exposed children, mistrust of reassurances from the authorities, and for hundreds of thousands of people, the consequences of forced evacuation from home and land. For some, the stress from these experiences has precipitated psychological illness; for others, an increased consumption of alcohol and cigarettes; and for still others, dietary changes to avoid perceived contamination. Some deaths from suicide, cirrhosis, or lung cancer could be regarded as indirect consequences of the accident and the subsequent measures taken. Whatever the view the nuclear industry may have about the irrationality of these consequences, they are real and have an important impact on public health, and so deserve greater attention.

Genetic consequences

Another consequence, not as firmly established as thyroid cancer, is mini-satellite instability (MSI) in children born to exposed fathers after <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Chernobyl,_Ukraine>Chernobyl. MSI is not a classical genetic effect, and its implications for health are far from clear. A similar effect has been seen in the children and grandchildren of men exposed to weapons testing in Semipalatinsk and a parallel phenomenon, tandem repeat instability, occurs in laboratory mice. MSI has not been observed in the survivors of the atomic bombings in studies of Chernobyl cleanup workers or in radiotherapy patients. MSI is considerably more frequent in relation to radiation <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Dose>dose than classical genetic effects and apparently does not become diluted in subsequent generations. Although its clinical significance is uncertain it is of some concern, certainly more than the Chernobyl Forum gave it credit for.

These issues are particularly relevant in view of developments in radiobiological research over the past 15 years. The apparently simple relationship between radiation dose and its effects are being reappraised. In the early 1990s, two previously unacknowledged effects of radiation were reported, genomic instability and the bystander effect. These effects are not accommodated by the current theoretical framework. Also in 1986, the risk per unit dose accrued from Chernobyl would have been assumed to be half that estimated from the atomic bombs in Japan. A recent detailed analysis of the Japanese experience suggested that the risk for those exposed to the lower doses could even be supralinear. Furthermore, the accuracy of the standard models for inferring doses from internal exposure have been questioned by the U.K. Committee Examining Radiation Risk of Internal Emitters. There is, therefore, considerable uncertainty in translating collective dose to health detriment and fatalities.

Unanswered issues

Birth defects

There have been many claims of an increased incidence of congenital anomalies in children born shortly after the accident. Some cases reported in the press show abnormalities similar to those following the use of thalidomide in pregnancy, and thalidomide was apparently available in the Soviet Union. It is not possible to separate <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Chernobyl,_Ukraine>Chernobyl-related abnormalities from those due to other causes or from the effects of increased ascertainment. Although a slight increase in minor conditions has been observed, there does not appear to have been a major increase in serious conditions such as limb deformities.

Leukemia

Intensive efforts have been made to detect an increase in leukemia, which is strongly associated with radiation. No statistically significant increases of those forms associated with radiation have been reported, but increases in chronic lymphatic leukemia, a no-radiation-related disease of older age, may testify to increased case ascertainment. However, the level of increase expected, given the received <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Dose>doses, anticipated risk factor, and the rarity of the condition, would only be detected by large analytical­as opposed to <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Ecology>ecological­<http://www.eoearth.org/article/Epidemiology>epidemiology studies.

In the future

Experience from Japan shows that many effects of whole-body radiation exposure may not be apparent for decades. While the short initial latent period associated with the thyroid carcinoma after <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Chernobyl,_Ukraine>Chernobyl, together with the very large amounts of radioactive isotopes of <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Iodine>iodine released, have led to a huge effort to reconstruct thyroid doses, much less attention has been paid to whole-body <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Dose>doses. Measurements of the initial exposure phase for those in the 30-km zone, while confused, point to <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Absorption_of_toxicants>absorbed doses to the whole body of many individuals that were > 1 <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Gray>Gray (Gy), with average doses to some 25,000 Belarusian evacuees of a substantial fraction of a Gray. Doses received by infants evacuated from the 30-km zone are estimated to be in the range of 0.03–2 <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Sievert>sieverts (Sv), well within the range that led to a significant rise in cancer incidence after the atomic bombs. As well as the thyroid, other <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Organ_systems_and_organs>organs show some concentration of iodine. One particularly important tissue is breast epithelium, which can concentrate iodine and receive radiation from <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Isotope>isotopes in the lung or thyroid. Some particular groups at exposure may show an excess incidence of breast cancer now or in the future. A significant rise in incidence of a range of malignancies in the population exposed to high levels of fallout, particularly those exposed as children, is clearly possible. All too often the phrase “no increase has been observed†conceals the lack of an adequate study.

The full complexity of the exposure regime has not been adequately explored, and the estimation of whole-body and many tissue-specific <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Dose>doses is imprecise or unknown. The radiation <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Dose>dose received from the atomic bombs was still being revised 50 years after the event. Taking into account the results of new research and the CERRIE report, it is very difficult to derive with any confidence the likely levels of health detriment from the estimated dose levels. It is also too soon to make an accurate assessment of longer-term effects from those already observed.

In the light of this level of uncertainty, the case is compelling for international research surveillance of the millions of people exposed to fallout from <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Chernobyl,_Ukraine>Chernobyl and selective follow-up of those exposed to high levels similar to that following the atomic bombings in Japan.

Editor's Note

This article is derived largely from Keith Baverstock and Dillwyn Williams, <http://www.ehponline.org/members/2006/9113/9113.html>The Chernobyl Accident 20 Years On: An Assessment of the Health Consequences and the International Response, Environmental Health Perspectives, 114(9):1312:1317 (September 2006) doi:10.1289/ehp.9113. Topic editors and authors for the Encyclopedia of Earth have edited its content or added new information. That article is used here under the terms of its <http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>Creative Commons Attribution License. The use of information from the original article should not be construed as support for or endorsement by its author for any new information added by EoE personnel, or for any editing of the original content.

Further Reading

* Baverstock, K., Egloff, B., Pinchera, A., Ruchti, C. and Williams, D., 1992. Thyroid cancer after Chernobyl. Nature, 359(6390):21–22.
* Cardis, E., Krewski, D., Boniol, M., Drozdovitch, V., Darby, S.C., Gilbert, E.S., et al., 2006. Estimates of the cancer burden in Europe from radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident. International Journal of Cancer, 119(6):1224–1235. doi 10.1002/ijc.22037.
* CERRIE, 2004. <http://www.cerrie.org/report/>Report of the Committee Examining Radiation Risks of Internal Emitters. London: National Radiological Protection Board.
* IAEA, 1991. <http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub885e_web.pdf>International Chernobyl Project: Technical Report: Assessment of Radiological Consequences and Evaluation of Protective Measures. Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency.
* IAEA, 1996. <http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub1001_web.pdf>One Decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the Consequences of the Accident. Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency.
* UN, 2002. <http://www.undp.org/dpa/publications/chernobyl.pdf>The Human Consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: A Strategy for Recovery. New York: United Nations.
* UNSCEAR. 1988. <http://www.unscear.org/docs/reports/1988/1988i_unscear.pdf>Annex D: Exposures from the Chernobyl accident. In: <http://www.unscear.org/unscear/en/publications/1988.html>Sources and Effects of Ionising Radiation; United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation 1988 Report to the General Assembly, with Annexes. New York: United Nations.
* UNSCEAR, 2000. <http://www.unscear.org/docs/reports/annexj.pdf>Annex J: Exposures and effects of the Chernobyl accident. In: <http://www.unscear.org/unscear/en/publications/2000_2.html>Sources and Effects of Ionising Radiation; United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation 2000 Report to the General Assembly, with Scientific Annexes, Volume II: Effects. New York: United Nations, 451–566.
* Westermann, A., van den Brink, W., et al., 1997. <http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/picrender.fcgi?artid=1469920&blobtype=pdf>Health effects of the Chernobyl disaster: illness or illness behavior? A comparative general health survey in two former Soviet regions. Environmental Health Perspectives, 105(6):1533–1537.>
* WHO, 1995. Health Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident. Results of the IPHECA Pilot Projects and Related National Programmes. Summary Report. Geneva: World Health Organization. <http://www.amazon.com/dp/9241561815/?tag=encycofearth-20>ISBN: 9241561815
* WHO, 2005a. <http://www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/a_e/chernobyl/-EGH%20Master%20file%202005.08.24.pdf>Health Effects of the Chernobyl Accident and Special Health Care Programmes.
* WHO, 2005b. <http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2005/pr38/en/index.html>Chernobyl: The True Scale of the Accident; 20 Years Later a UN Report Provides Definitive Answers and Ways to Repair Lives [Press Release].


Citation

Biomed.central (Content Source);<http://www.eoearth.org/profile/Emily.monosson>Emily Monosson (Topic Editor) "Health effects of the Chernobyl accident". In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). [First published in the Encyclopedia of Earth July 24, 2008; Last revised Date July 24, 2008; Retrieved March 17, 2011 <<http://www.eoearth.org/article/Health_effects_of_the_Chernobyl_accident>http://www.eoearth.org/article/Health_effects_of_the_Chernobyl_accident>

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallout>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallout

Status of the Nuclear Reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant:

<http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/16/world/asia/reactors-status.html?ref=asia>http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/16/world/asia/reactors-status.html?ref=asia



1 comment:

bodylift said...

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